Forecasting Travel Demand for Innovative Transport Systems: Autonomous Vehicles

Challenges and new methods to understand and forecast travel demand for innovative transport systems: a look at the case of autonomous vehicles.



The advent of the new technology, from the simple smartphone to the electric vehicles, autonomous and connected vehicles, smart city, the Internet of things, is transforming beyond recognition the way we interact among us and with the surrounding environment and the way we move. In this complex system, understanding, modelling and forecasting travel demand represents one of the key research challenges of our time. In particular, the large scale deployment of autonomous and connected vehicles poses a critical question related to whether, how fast and under which conditions, consumers will adopt this new technology. Studies on large scale implementation of autonomous vehicles rely generally on quite simple assumptions about the future demand, which makes any attempt to plan the future of our transport systems more challenging. Standard methods to predict transport demand are not suitable because they assume existence and stability of individual preferences for the product and its characteristics. Since preferences are formed over time and change with acquisition of knowledge and experience, it is very likely that vast proportion of the population does not have preferences for autonomous vehicles, or that their current preferences will change as the technology evolves and becomes more available in the real market.

This presentation will discuss challenges and opportunities of forecasting the demand for autonomous vehicles. It will focus on two key aspects. The problem of measuring and estimating individual preferences and will discuss the challenges of the current stated preference methods and the potentiality of new technologies such as Virtual Reality (VR) to measure users preferences. The problem of dynamically simulate the adoption and diffusion of autonomous vehicles, which, as in most of the transport innovations, involves instrumental, economic, psychological and social dimensions.

The event is finished.


Nov 30 2021


8:00 am - 9:00 am

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