Photos, Video and Presentations: Figuring Out the Future with Metaculus - How Companies Can Turn Employees Into Futurists and Better Decision-Makers with Prediction Platforms

For this special session, sponsored by Meet In Place, we explore predicting the future with Metaculus (a prediction engine website and a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events). After kicking off the evening by breaking into groups and playing IMPACT (a board game that teaches you to think critically and imaginatively about emerging technologies and the future of society), Dr. Anthony Aguirre (physicist, author, co-Founder of Metaculus, Future of Life Institute, and Foundational Questions Institute), joined us via live video to discuss Metaculus and how we can learn to predict the future more effectively and to ask more probabilistic questions about the future.

Dr. Aguirre's thought-provoking presentation was followed by an interactive, attendee Q&A moderated by Anne T. Griffin (Product Manager at Priceline and Chief Product Coach at Griffin Product Coaching).

Read full topic synopsis, event details, and speaker bios here: http://bit.ly/t25metaculus

Speaker Presentations

Moderator:  Anne T. Griffin (Prediction Markets, Forums, and Platforms)

Guest Speaker:  Dr. Anthony Aguirre (Mapping the Future with Metaculus)

 Host: Charlie Oliver (The Growing Demand for People Who Can Predict the Future)

Video Playback: Speaker Presentation & Q&A

Research and Resources

Corporate and Tech

  • Experience from Hosting a Corporate Prediction Market: Benefits Beyond the Forecast (by Ford Motor Company)  [view]
  • User Participation in Corporate Prediction Markets (by Daniel E. O’Leary, University of Southern California)  [view] 
  • Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google (WSJ)  [view]
  • A Study of More Than 250 Platforms Reveals Why Most Fail  [view]
  • Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance [view]
Other Industries

  • Oil & Gas Company Case Study How the Global Exploration Group used crowdsourced forecasting to inform drilling and lease sale decisions.  [view]
  • Using Prediction Markets to Enhance US Intelligence Capabilities  [view]
  • Government Prediction Markets: Why, Who, and How  [view]
  • Betting on Climate Policy: Using Prediction Markets to Address Global Warming  [view]
  • Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”  [view]
  • Prediction markets and their potential role in biomedical research – A review  [view]
Podcast Interviews with Dr. Anthony Aguirre

  • Nonprofits Super-Forecasting Podcast Episode 73  [listen]
  • Rationally Speaking Episode 214  [listen]
  • Future of Life Podcast, The Art of Predicting  [listen]
Introduction to Metaculus

Predicting the Future (of Life) [view]

His New Book:  Cosmological Koans: A Journey to the Heart of Physical Reality (June 2019)

Cosmological Koans invites the reader into an intellectual adventure of the highest order.

Through more than fifty Koans―pleasingly paradoxical vignettes following the ancient Zen tradition―leading physicist Anthony Aguirre takes the reader across the world from West to East, and through ideas spanning the age, breadth, and depth of the Universe.

Using these beguiling Koans (Could there be a civilization on a mote of dust? How much of your fate have you made? Who cleans the universe?) and a flair for explaining complex science, Aguirre covers cosmic questions that scientific giants from Aristotle to Galileo to Heisenberg have grappled with, from the meaning of quantum theory and the nature of time to the origin of multiple universes.

A playful and enlightening book, Cosmological Koans explores the strange hinterland between the deep structure of the physical world and our personal experience of it, giving readers what Einstein himself called “the most beautiful and deepest experience” anyone can have: a sense of the mysterious.

ORDER AT AMAZON: http://amzn.to/2XvyAbf
Dr. Anthony Aguire

Anne T. Griffin

Charlie Oliver

Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries (by Donald M. Thompson)

Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business

From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds.

Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done.

In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution.

VIEW ON AMAZON:  http://amzn.to/2ZT09c0


Question Everything: Scientific Thinking in Real Life (edX)


Have you ever wondered how you can apply math and science skills to real life? Do you wish you could go beyond what you've learned in the classroom? This science course will advance your knowledge as we unpack some important scientific thinking skills using real-world examples. By completing this course, you will be better prepared to continue studying math and science at the high school level and beyond.  In this course, a collaboration between The University of Queensland and Brisbane Grammar School, we will cover key scientific concepts related to:  Measurement  /  Estimation  /  The validity of evidence  /  The difference between logic and opinion  /  Misconceptions  /  Modeling  /  Prediction  /  Extrapolation

VIEW COURSE: http://bit.ly/2XFTDro


Probability


How can we accurately model the unpredictable world around us? How can we reason precisely about randomness? This course will guide you through the most important and enjoyable ideas in probability to help you cultivate a more quantitative worldview.

VIEW COURSE:  http://bit.ly/2XCwM06

Event Photos

You can also view and share the photos on Facebook here: bit.ly/t25fbmet

Predict the future with Metaculus.

Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.

Users can track their predictions, earn points and powers, and hone their forecasting skills. Do you have what it takes to be a super predictor?

Give it a try and tell us what you think!

Follow Metaculus on Twitter: @metaculus

Predict the future of work with IMPACT.

IMPACT is a Foresight Game that teaches you to think critically and imaginatively about emerging technologies and the future of society. We played the game prior to Dr. Anthony Aguirre's presentation and we played it last year which you can learn about HERE.

Designed by futurists, IMPACT invites players to take on jobs of the future and navigate change in order to achieve their character’s preferred future state. The game is meant to help players to learn the basics of futures thinking and practice thinking about how these emerging technologies could evolve and the various ways they could influence society.

Our Awesome Event Sponsor

Meet In Place is a global network of boutique offsite meeting spaces, with locations in New York, London and Tel Aviv. Meeting rooms come in various styles and sizes (3-40 people). They are beautifully designed around helping teams and professionals be as productive, focused and creative as possible, while providing all the necessary amenities. Customers use our meeting rooms to conduct off-sites from seminars and workshops to creative brainstorming sessions, quarterly business reviews, sales training, and lectures. And they just opened their doors at 87 Nassau St. -- a great location for downtown meetings!

TECH 2025 members get a 10% discount off first booking using this discount code on their website or on their mobile app:  TECH2025 

Instagram: @meetinplace

Download their instant booking app:  GOOGLE PLAY  /  APP STORE

To participate in more of our future-thinking events, become a Tech 2025 Member today!

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